Interesting news.
I think ultimately, in the end, a Candidate Cain could get more than 4% of the black vote, (probably not a third as he claims, but ~15%) and do a bit better among youth and women than this poll suggests.
I am not convinced that Cain will attract a significantly larger perportion of the Black vote.
His major gains will be in the “Guilty White” vote, which he will completely neutralize.
I think your estimate is a bit pessimistic, but pessimism is wisdom for those who want to win.
I'm beginning to think that -- if he doesn't take himself out -- it's going to be Cain vs. Obama.
Suits me fine, btw.