What is next? The goal of course is a Sup Court imposition of gay marriage on the entire nation. They may be somewhat reluctant to push this all the way to the Sup Court now with traitor Ted Olson’s case because of the fear that Anthony Kennedy will have a good day and rule against them. But who knows how Kennedy will come down on this? And even if Kennedy were to rule correctly that there is no Constitutional right to have the state recognize same sex unions, then it wouldn’t be all that long until they try again with another Sup Court. And if Obama is reelected, then he’ll probably get to replace Kennedy and/or Scalia, and maybe Breyer as well. And even if Obama is defeated, then there is no guarantee a Republican president will choose wisely in replacing those guys based on history.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Kennedy tried to impose a ‘compromise’ by voting to impose recognition of same-sex unions, but giving us rubes the option of what we call it; gay marriage, or civil unions, or domestic partnerships, or whatever. This would please noone but ‘moderate’ Republicans, and again a later Sup Court would probably change it so that it must be ‘marriage.’
It’s sad but true, but really the most conservatives can hope for now is a lasting Sup Court decision that says if the State recognizes traditional marriage, there is nothing in the Constitution that compels it to do the same for same sex unions. This would likely mean that Kennedy gets it right sometime in the next few years whenever the issue finally gets there, and then the election of a Republican president and Senate next year and the replacement of good and bad judges now with new conservative judges.
This would mean that the matter rightly stays with the states where it belongs. In those states where the people have got to vote, it means traditional marriage will continue to be the only recognized union. Despite changing polling data, there is almost no chance the people will actually vote down state marriage amendments they passed in the last 10 years or so. At least, I don’t think it will happen anytime soon.
My guess is that if it comes to be that the Sup Court will not impose gay marriage, then the Left will try economic coercion. I could easily see them pressuring Google, Ford, GM, et al not to open new facilities in states that ‘hate.’
But if the Left prevails in the Sup Court then it is over. We’ve failed miserably in doing away with Roe, and it would be no different with a Roe-like decision on gay marriage. With changing views, I don’t think a federal Amendment could pass that defines marriage traditionally. I use to think that at a minimum an Amendment could pass that stops short of banning gay marriage, and instead explicitly empowers the states to handle the matter and strips the courts, but now I doubt that would pass either.
“Despite changing polling data, there is almost no chance the people will actually vote down state marriage amendments they passed in the last 10 years or so. At least, I don’t think it will happen anytime soon.”
If I recall, the average of the pro-marriage amendments passed by 67%, and most of them passing in the middle of the last decade. Some came from very liberal states like Hawaii that decided the issue very early on in the wave of state amendments, and passed it by 68% in’98. By how much would it pass now? Or would it even pass? Of course in most states it will be a very long time if the trend continues as it has for the last several decades before the homosexualists can even hope to come close to challenging the pro-marriage amendments.
Prop. 8 only passed by 52% in 2008. If it is upheld by our black robed masters, look to see some sort of popular repeal process started. Same thing with the other states that passed amendments in the 50-60% ranges: as soon as the homosexualists think they have the numbers they will be screaming for a popular vote.
The time to pass a national pro-marriage amendment was the 90’s in my opinion, of course it wasn’t much of an issue then. A polygamy or incest amendment would pass now, but it would have to be specific to those issues, if it included gay marriage I don’t think it would get very far at all. But again, it isn’t an issue right now and so it can’t get a movement behind it. But that means it is the time to pass it. It’s a catch 22.
Freegards
Polygamy will be tough. On the one hand Mormons like it so it is bad and must be discouraged, on the other hand muslims like it therefore it is good and must be encouraged in the name of diversity. Maybe there will be a compromise, and polygamy will be allowed only for muslims