In many states signatures are required to get on the ballot. That is what is required in Iowa. We hold a caucus so it isn’t necessary for President, but if we had a primary it would be.
Signatures take time and ground game. You can’t just announce a day before and get on the ballot. A month is a minimum safe margin IMO.
In the end it’s a hard delegate count that wins. All the strategy in the world isn’t going to change that. It’s time for everyone to crap or get off the pot.
Illinois too. At least 3,000, no more than 5,000.
-- In the end it's a hard delegate count that wins. All the strategy in the world isn't going to change that. It's time for everyone to crap or get off the pot. --
If FL goes early, it loses half of its delegates. There is LOTS of party strategy involved in obtaining the nomination, and of course, "insiders" have advantages of preferred access, know the rules, control the rules, etc.
I disagree that a serious contender has to have declared by now, or "it's time" [now] to declare. There is at least a month of cushion, and maybe more. Election politics can be very volatile.