[Retired Greyhound]

Carter was up in the polls throughout 1980, sometimes by as much as 30 points. But he could never get above 50%, which is the key.

Once Labor Day 2012 rolls around, after the conventions, the public starts paying attention to this stuff. If an incumbent can’t get over 50% before election day, he’s toast. The undecideds break for the challenger.

In 1980, not only did the undecideds flood to Reagan, but a lot of Carter’s polled support did as well.

In 2004, Bush was unable to get above 50% until the last few weeks of the campaign. But once he did, it indicated that he would be reelected, no matter how narrow the margin.

Obama will probably poll in the mid-40’s throughout 2012, and may consistently lead the GOP challenger. The election day poll is the only one that matters.

[longtermmemmory]

CNN and Fox News Dynamics polls will fake the results to get over 50

[GonzoGOP]

Carter was up in the polls throughout 1980, sometimes by as much as 30 points. But he could never get above 50%, which is the key.

One of the best quotes on this is from Dick Morris. If you are asked if you will still be married to the same person next year and the response is undecided, what does that say about the chances of staying with your spouse.