Straw polls are BS. Let’s wait until some REAL votes are counted. I think after Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina have voted we will see some direction. I think whoever wins Florida (the primary, not the straw poll) will most likely win the nomination.
I can clearly envision a scenario where a different candidate wins each of those first four states. Bachmann in Iowa, Romney in New Hampshire, Perry or Cain in S. Carolina and Perry or Cain in Florida.
If any one candidate takes both S. Carolina AND Florida, that could bode well for that candidate in regards to the nomination.