Iraq is the elephant in the room. Their production has already doubled, and has potential for triple the pre-war extraction rate.
The fracking process, while stymied by greens in some countries, like the US, is also increasing production from many wells that were capped.
For these reasons, I’m betting on cheaper oil, even if the world economy comes back some.
Italy’s Eni: Oil production resumes in Libya
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/09/26/general-energy-eu-italy-libya-oil_8700608.html