Disappointing analysis. I am all in for Palin, but with a title like that I was expecting some interesting alternative primary strategies, and there were none. I don’t know how you could come in after missing those early deadlines and still end up with enough delegates to win. Not saying it can’t be done. I just don’t see how it could work. Illinois requires thousands of signatures, all have to be ready to turn in by end of November, so really you have to start mid Octoberish. Second ballot at the convention has been floated, but the real odds of that working are not unlike the odds of the Bears making a successful onside kick. Just sayin ...
Not only that, but there would be no upside to passing one or more early deadlines. You could speculate that the reasons for waiting till the last minute (saves money, ammo, plays the media) might apply for a primary or two and worth the loss of delegates. But, that is a real stretch for me. She'll enter next week most likely.
Not less than 3000 or more than 5000 signatures, in any are required at all. 10 ILCS Sec. 7-11.
Sec. 7-11. Any candidate for President of the United States may have his name printed upon the primary ballot of his political party by filing in the office of the State Board of Elections not more than 113 and not less than 106 days prior to the date of the general primary, in any year in which a Presidential election is to be held, a petition signed by not less than 3000 or more than 5000 primary electors, members of and affiliated with the party of which he is a candidate, and no candidate for President of the United States, who fails to comply with the provisions of this Article shall have his name printed upon any primary ballot: Provided, however, that if the rules or policies of a national political party conflict with such requirements for filing petitions for President of the United States in a presidential preference primary, the Chairman of the State central committee of such national political party shall notify the State Board of Elections in writing, citing by reference the rules or policies of the national political party in conflict, and in such case the Board shall direct such petitions to be filed not more than 69 and not less than 62 days prior to the date of the general primary, in any year in which a Presidential election is to be held. Provided, further, unless rules or policies of a national political party otherwise provide, the vote for President of the United States, as herein provided for, shall be for the sole purpose of securing an expression of the sentiment and will of the party voters with respect to candidates for nomination for said office, and the vote of the state at large shall be taken and considered as advisory to the delegates and alternates at large to the national conventions of respective political parties; and the vote of the respective congressional districts shall be taken and considered as advisory to the delegates and alternates of said congressional districts to the national conventions of the respective political parties.