Example of ORSAT used in predicting the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) spacecraft reentry breakup. Demise altitude vs. downrange evaluated for nearly all of the UARS components.
Drag alone is not enough to determine impact speed. Weight is important, too.
The heavy piece hits at 99 mi/h.
They show a 59 pound piece falling at the same speed as the heavy one, an 11 pound piece falling at 59, a 2 pound piece at 40, a 4 pound piece at 30, and 11 pound piece at 81, and a 1 pound piece at 47.
There are 5 lighter types of pieces falling faster than 99.
So, some light pieces fall faster, some slower than the heaviest piece.
Details of the UARS satellite debris to hit the Earth
(1) HGA gimbal and reten. (Titanium) 59 pounds impacting at 99 miles per hour
(4) Forward bulkhead fitting (Titanium) 55 pounds impacting at 177 miles per hour
(1) SSPP gimball (Titanium) 134 pounds impacting at 130 miles per hour
(1) SSPP structure (AL-2024-T8) 348 pounds impacting at 99 miles per hour
(4) MMS fuel tanks (Titanium) 11 pounds impacting at 59 miles per hour
(3) MMS MPS batteries (SSteel 304L) 101 pounds impacting at 146 miles per hour
(4) Reaction wheel rims (SSteel 304L) 4 pounds impacting at 240 miles per hour
(1) FSS housing (Beryllium) 7 pounds impacting at 175 miles per hour
(2) FHST bracket (Beryllium) 2 pounds impacting at 40 miles per hour
(2) G.F. abutment plate (Titanium) 4 pounds impacting at 30 miles per hour
(2) G.F. base plate (Titanium) 11 pounds impacting at 81 miles per hour
(1) G.F. extension (Titanium) 1 pound impacting at 47 miles per hour
AL-2024 = Aluminum. That is one heck of a beer can.
Drag alone is enough to determine impact speed. Drag specifically counteracts the accelleration of gravity and in effect sets a limit on speed in a steady state environment. The atmosphere isn't really steady state as it gets more dense (more drag) closer to the surface.
Everything being equal though, aerodynamic drag is the limiting factor for an object falling freely, of which this event is a pretty good case of.
Weight as you note (more accurately density) does play a role as the more dense an object is the less surface area there likely is to create aerodynamic drag resulting in a higher velocity before drag = acceleration of gravity resulting in a higher terminal velocity.