Dick Cheney and Steve Chapman have motives, separate and distinct from one another, for signalling Hillary to run. Neither Cheney or Chapman are concerned with Hillary’s short term goals and want her to considered her long term goals.
Cheney doesn’t want the Republican Party to be remembered as the Party that drubbed the First African American President into oblivion during his re-election campaign. If Obama announced he was not seeking re-election, then it would allow Obama to retire gracefully and depart for a campaign of post-election success.
Chapman, an opinion writer from Chicago with a large Black Community following, wants Obama to end his Presidency gracefully, too. Chapman is signalling to Hillary the Black Community will be very appreciative if Hillary were to take one for the team and allow Obama to move on to a campaign of post-Presidency success.
The Hispanic Community, the community that supported Bush and Obama, will, again, be left on a political island wondering what happened. While the Hispanic Community wants Hillary to consider her options and do what is best because of her untiring support for Obama, the Black Community and the Republicans want Hillary to step up and protect Obama from defeat.
Time heals all wounds and I’m sure the Black Community and the Republicans will be very gracious and appreciative of Hillary for her sacrifice. Otherwise, there will be continuing questions of why she let the Republicans embarrass Obama. If she supports Obama, why didn’t she let Obama retire gracefully?
I think you’re about half right. Given their druthers, I agree that the establishment gop would prefer that obama exit gracefully. Conservatives and anti-establishment types want him out, and they don’t care how.
As for the democrats, the vast majority of black voters strongly support obama and would follow him off of a cliff. Hispanics don’t much care. hillary can’t win without both those groups and a large number of independents who at this point are predisposed to vote against the democratic party.
I don’t see an easy avenue to victory for hillary. She would have to be able to convince blacks that she wasn’t behind obama leaving office, and convince independents that the democrats are not the enemy. It’s true that the gop excels at seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. But if I were her, I wouldn’t expect the gop to be so incompetent as to lose this election.
And what does she get if she wins? An economy in the dumps, a political culture that is about two inches from openly brawling in the streets, and an international picture that is bleak at best. Oh, and a lot less money than she would earn if she didn’t bother.
I just don’t see it happening.