florida
iowa
georgia
nevada
south carolina
oklahoma
alabama
louisiana
wisconsin
north carolina
ohio
west virginia
kentucky
and Romney is winning:
new hampshire
michigan
connecticut
Toss Up
california - one poll has Romney slightly ahead (but within the margin of error) and a 2nd poll has them tied there.
And you can probably put Texas in Perry's corner and Massachusetts in Romney's even though neither have been polled.
So how is Romney going to win? where is his path to the nomination with almost every state with an early primary is polling for Perry, as Perry starts racking up wins, the momentum and money will shift further and further towards him.
Have you ever looked at where primary polls were five months before the first vote in previous elections? Even just back to 2008 is a good example.