Well, the polls out of Florida after the debates completely disagree with your view. Perry is still up by 9 in Florida and will take it easy.
If the polls 2-3 weeks from now still show Perry comfortably out ahead, then I agree he will be our nominee. I think it is still too early to reach that conclusion right now though.
Like I said, I am reasonably discouraged. I don't want to tamper enthusiasm of others though, so I'll back out of this thread now.