2008 is a horrible example, because all the choices bit, and no serious contender from the South.
This would be far more comparible to the 2000 primary with Bush and McCain.
In 2000 against Bush in the primaries McCain won:
VT
NH
MA
CT
RI
MI
and AZ his home state.
substitute Utah for AZ because of Romney being Mormon and you have the probable outcome of the 2012 primary. This will be a near repeat of the 2000 primary.
Huckabee was a serious contender from the South.