*Of course* President Bush won a majority of TX Hispanics in the 2004 election. Are you suggesting that he carried 88%-Hispanic Cameron County (Brownsville), or gotten 59% in 80%-Hispanic Val Verde County, or 63% of the vote in 62%-Hispanic Atascosa County, or 70% of the vote in 50%-Hispanic Medina County, or 57% of the vote in 60%-Hispanic Nueces County, or 63% of the vote in 54%-Hispanic San Patricio County, or 78% of the vote in 67%-Hispanic Deaf Smith County, without getting a huge chunk of the Hispanic vote?
TX Hispanics usually give Republicans between 35%-40% of the vote. Writing off their vote would be tantamount to writing off the state within the next decade. That does *not* mean that we should support amnesty, or in-state tuition, for illegal aliens, and it is perfectly legitimate to criticize Gov. Perry for his positions on immigration and his support for in-state tuition. But what is counterproductive and just plain counterfactual is to say things like “Texas Hispanics always vote overwhelmingly Democrat” and to refuse to consider evidence to the contrary.
The 2004 exit poll that got all of the attention and attributed a national 44% share of the Hispanic vote to Bush was almost certainly wrong. That 44% figure was debunked from both the Right and Left, and it’s hard to buy that Bush won 55% of the latino vote in Texas. His overall margin would have been much higher in Texas.
I would say that Hispanics always vote overwhelmingly Democratic in national Presidential elections, because they do. The best any Republican has done in the last 30 years is Reagan in 1984 and Bush in 2004, and at most Bush won 40%.
As to Texas, as you say the norm is large, double-digit margins for Democrats. So as long as the absolute number of Hispanic voters increases, it can more than offset the election here and there were the GOP does relatively well with latinos.
So long term it looks grim for Texas, and the nation, unless demographic trends change or at least slow. Even if we reduced immigration like we should, the momentum from decades of mass immigration and higher birth rates from Hispanics will still push up their share of the population and electorate considerably, but at least the GOP and conservative movement might have a fighting chance. If large scale immigration continues, I see very little reason to be optimistic.