Ninety five percent of those who vote will vote for Obama, but he has a turnout problem here.
Obama is beginning to embarrass blacks. They are tiring of defending him. He's obviously over his head, and his character is being found wanting in the black community.
Some I know are afraid he will embarrass them further. Will they vote Republican? No. But they will stay home in numbers significant enough to hurt Obama's chances, IMHO.
In a community with 70% out of wedlock births, and incarceration rates six times higher than for whites, Obama's character is found wanting and he is an embarrassment. This might be his greatest achievement.