That has me a little worried, but remember that the polls still have Perry with a double digit lead over Romney.
Here is the primary schedule:
January 31st: Florida (Likely to change)
February 6th: Iowa caucuses
February 7th: Minnesota GOP caucuses, Missouri, New Jersey
February 14th: New Hampshire
February 18th: Nevada caucuses
February 21st: Wisconsin
February 28th: South Carolina, Arizona, Michigan
March 6th (Super Tuesday): Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Colorado caucuses, Idaho GOP caucuses, Minnesota Democratic caucuses
I can honestly only see Romney potentially winning new hampshire and massachusetts. Perry will easily win all the others. Where is Romney’s road to the nomination? All the states he is likely to do well in California and Utah are dead last to vote. By super Tuesday Romney is toast.
Good helpful post. One thing that is often forgotten: candidates rack up delegates state by state. Even if a candidates’ national numbers look good, that doesn’t amount to anything, unless that candidate also wins individual states.
As you correctly note, the state by state layout strongly benefits Perry.
An interesting footnote: Even if Palin runs (I know that there is really little chance of that at this stage...but even so, it is for another month or so, at least a theoretical possibility), what is HER path to the nomination?
Which STATES is she actually going to win?
We all know that it is impossible for her to win New Hampshire. She might have a shot in Iowa but I doubt it. She is not going to win Minnesota, or New Jersey.
The fact is that all of these early states STRONGLY favor Perry, or Romney (except possibly Iowa).
So even if she jumps in, and even if she vaults to the national lead among the other candidates, she is unlikely to win any state before Wisconsin or Arizona.
Her only hope would be that she somehow manages to catch fire in Iowa, and that brings her immediate organization and numbers in subsequent states.
For better or worse, that doesn’t work, as a general rule. Ask President Huckabee.
In any event, your helpful post puts a real world perspective on this.