I agree that Libya and Sudan wouldn’t count for much, beyond suicide bomber pools, but like you said I think that Egypt and Syria are the real problems here due to their proximity. Iran, while on the other side of the Middle East, is going to have nukes soon if they don’t already and I’ll bet dollars to donuts that if this heats up, those nukes get shipped to Turkey or Syria for launch against Israel. The closer they are to their target, the less time Israel has to react, which is never a good thing.
I’m not sure we’ll see Iranian nuclear weapons in the immediate future. It is a surprisingly long step from having a nuclear bomb to having a deliverable nuclear warhead. Having a Paki bomb show up is more likely.