I believe part of the Palin strategy here is to let the initial field of candidates winnow itself down to a couple of serious contenders (in this case, Perry and Romney). Then enter the race as a fresh alternative to those two and collect the resources of those in the second tier or those who have dropped out.
There is obviously danger in a strategy like this as you risk a front-runner getting so far ahead in money and resources that they become difficult to catch with a late-entry. But I think Palin has people who know what they are doing and they are probably coaching her to stay on the sidelines as long as practically possible.
Palin is an a unique situation here where she already has near 100% name recognition among voters and a loyal base of near-fanatical supporters (consider me guilty as charged). Once she announces, it will have the effect of a thermonuclear bomb on this entire race.
Many of people I speak to are eager for Palin to run but are embarrassed about expressing their support for her publicly as they don't want to look stupid to their family and friends if she decides in the end not to run. But once she's in it, I think many of us will be surprised at the wave of grass-roots support she will receive.
Lastly, I want to make mention of Palin's two speeches over the weekend in Iowa and New Hampshire. She saw first hand the grass-roots support and the enthusiasm the people gave her when they chanted "Run, Sarah, Run." From all I know about Sarah Palin so far, I gather that she is not the kind of person who would take advantage of regular folks like this. If she was truly not running, I think she would have quietly gotten word out to these PAC groups not to waste their time.
Palin's strategy is to stay out of the Arena and allow herself to be thought of as unelectable by some rather than enter the Arena and remove all doubt.
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FOX News Poll: For Release 6PM ET Thursday, September 1, 2011
25. I’m going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination. Please tell me which one you would like to see as the Republican presidential nominee. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY)
Rick Perry ...................... 26%
Mitt Romney ................... 18%
Sarah Palin ....................... 8%
Ron Paul .......................... 7%
Michele Bachmann ........... 4%
Rudy Giuliani .................... 4%
Herman Cain .................... 4%
27. Do you think Sarah Palin should run for president in 2012 or not? (ALL VOTERS)
Yes ...... 20%
No .......74
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Palin is an a unique situation here where she already has near 100% name recognition among voters and a loyal base of near-fanatical supporters (consider me guilty as charged). Once she announces, it will have the effect of a thermonuclear bomb on this entire race.
Step back and analyze what you have just said.
Yes, Palin has sky-high name recognition (99% in the August FOX News Poll). So do Nancy Pelosi, Charlie Sheen, Casey Anthony and Attila the Hun.
(Sky high name recognition) + (High positives) = Fantastic
(Sky-high name regognotion) + (Sky-high negatives) = (The worst possible combination you can have)
A brand new and unknown candidate has the opportunity to shoot up in public esteem. A candidate that has had non-stop media exposure for 3 years and is known to everybody not living under a rock means that opinions are pretty much set in stone. That is why Newt Gingrich never had a chance in 2012. Opinions about Gingrich were set in stone long ago.
Nationally, Sarah Palin has higher Negatives than Nancy Pelosi.
Her 99% name recognition means that those Negatives, like Newt Gingrich'e Negatives and Nancy Pelosi's Negatives, are pretty much set in stone.