I don’t think it would happen. A 3rd party would split the vote. You can’t assume those that are moderate would vote 3rd party. Especially if those moderates didn’t believe you were fielding anyone who is moderate.
You aren’t listening. Those who are moderate WILL NOT vote for the conservative. They will vote for either Romney or Obama.
If those two split 60% of the vote and there are 40% who consider themselves conservative, then the conservative independent candidate can win with roughly 34% of that 40%.
Now do you understand?.
I don’t see a 3rd party happening this time around. What conservatives NEED to do is take control of the Republican party and kick out the elitists.