Of course not. In fact, I think that policies like CRA have inflated home prices a lot more than 15% from trend--look at any chart, like the Case Schiller index.
It would be better if it had never been done. But, we are where we are, and if you let the air out all at once, there will be consequences--some of which I've listed. If home prices drop 15% because of a sudden adjustment, in addition to the drop they've already experienced, there will be a lot more underwater banks and securities.
Now, if an adjustment policy were to take place over some longer period of time, like 8 to 10 years, the shock would be diminished, and I'd be willing to discuss the policy on its merits (which are actually substantial).
“and if you let the air out all at once”
But if you don’t let the air out all at once, we create uncertainty as people wonder what their home will be worth once the deduction is gone.
That’s where we are today. We all know there will have to be some sort of fix to the real estate problem, we just don’t know what or when it will be. We all know the banks are going to take loses from bad real estate loans, we just don’t know how much they will be or when they will be put on the books. We all know the SEC et. al. will come up with financial reform regulations, we just don;t know what they will be or when they will go into effect. And so on and so on.
I think the best thing to do would be to take the housing price kick in the shorts as quickly as possible so we can get back to building wealth.
Washington just needs to stop. It needs to overturn all the previous meddling and let us do what makes sense according to the natural state of the economy.