Al Qaeda (Sunni) was never well liked in Iran (Shia) and we even got some support from Iran in western Afghanistan for a while. Iran has been giving us a hard time in Iraq because the minority Sunni used to rule the majority Shia. In Bharein the majority Shia are ruled by the minority Sunni who are being helped by the Sunni Saudis. Iran will not be happy that Syria’s Alawi (Shia sub group) government is likely to fall to Sunnis.
If you wish to better understand the violent crosscurrents of the Middle East, study the history of Europe in the 2 to 3 hundred year after Martin Luther began the Protestant Reformation.
Actually, I think you are both right.
Add MB (moslem brotherhood) to that Islamic mix in Syria, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia & generally the ME & N. Africa. Also, MB is a different ballgame to AQ; it operates differently, though, obviously, still Islamic.
End of the day, no matter what the differences between AQ, MB or Shia Islamic regime, theirs is about shifting loyalties based on political expediency that are situation specific. More importantly, what will always *unite* these Islamic grps (and sects) is & will be the shared fundamental theology i.e. ISLAM. And, for them, Islam is a very powerful bonding factor. Particularly against a *complete outsider* i.e. the West.
S. Arabia, despite its “official elite & policy makers” being rather chummy with western gov’ts, is no exception.
I’d say that unless the West has a contingency plan of sorts, it has to be careful w/ both its strategies & tactics of intervention in the ME & N. Africa (generally moslem countries). All the wheeling & dealing. Because, imho, the West is walking on eggs shells & on thin ice.
Some may think that by playing sunnis against shi’ites, for example, we are weakening them. But, it is also weakening the West - we’ll see that longer term.
And here at home what is our response? Little to no action to utilize our resources. Are our resources owned by someone other than ourselves?