Seems to me you don’t understand the difference in odds of one random event happening versus two consecutive random events in a particular order. The actuarial statisticians who calculate odds for these events - all of the ‘hole in one” type events - calculate this down to the nth degree so that small fund raising organizations can afford to insure these events.
Ah, yes I do.
And I pointed out the only issue that changed the overall odds of a payout.