The best predictor of a recession is the Treasury Yield curve. At this writing, the yield curve is still very steep. That is not indicative of an impending recession.
—The best predictor of a recession is the Treasury Yield curve. At this writing, the yield curve is still very steep. That is not indicative of an impending recession.—
I don’t think the treasury yield curve is an indication of anything other than what the people impacting the curve believe. And all they can control is the yield curve - for a time - until reality forces their hand. It hasn’t yet, but I believe it will.
Remember Buffet buying all that BofA stock? That is the sort of thing large private investors were doing in the weeks and months that led up to the 1929 crash. But they too eventually ran out of money to prevent the inevitable.
Not this time. The Fed's purchases of Treasury Bonds have completely distorted interest rates. We don't have any idea what a free market yield would look like.