[cumbo78]

I have read that if the same storm occurred now, taking the same path through Long Island, the loss of life would be astronomical.

[AustinBill]

Absolutely correct. In 1938 Long Island was mostly farmland and very sparsely populated. Today it is densely populated and impossible to evacuate even with what at best might be a five day advance warning.

The same can be said for Miami or other major cities on the Eastern seaboard. For all the devastation wrought by Andrew in 1992 the fact that the main path was well south of the city was a blessing in terms of loss to life and property.

New York City tends to get a major (Cat 3 or better) storm once a century or so. The problem with rare events is that memories fade and the true power of nature tends to pass into legend and be forgotten.

Hurricanes are hardly unique in this regard. Similar scenarios can be constructed regarding any number of real but rare natural events.