[9YearLurker]

I think you’re both right:

Hurricanes are unpredictable and by the time they can be predicted it’s too late to evacuate. But the next time there’s an evacuation order, more people are likely to stay put.

[dirtboy]

That happened with Ivan and New Orleans in 2004 - the hurricane veered away from NOLA at the last minute, sparing it.

So people thought that would happen again with Katrina - and basically it did, but Katrina was so huge of a storm that it was able to flood NOLA with a shot from the weaker side of the storm.

But what are officials supposed to do? Not evacuate? That's what is whacked here - this storm had Cat 3 pressure - not easy to predict it two days out it will only be Cat 1 when it arrives in NYC.