The notion that he will self-destruct is overblown. He is following the classic tactic of moving to the right in the primary, and then he will drift back to the center in the general (assuming he is the nominee).
I think he has an excellent chance to beat Obambi. My lingering concern is if he is elected, will he govern like the conservative from the primaries or like the more moderate politician from the general?
A very realistic concern, in my opinion.
To make my position clear at the outset: I'm in Texas, I won't support Perry in the primary but I will support him if he's the nominee.
Understand that Perry is NOT a "conservative". He is a "conservative politician". The difference between conservative as a noun and conservative as an adjective is important.
In Texas, a conservative state, Perry had to be campaign as and govern as a "conservative politician" in order to succeed. Elected to national office, he may well prefer to govern as "some other kind of politician".