Good analysis in your post, but you have to know that Sarah decided to run for President the day she removed herself from being Governor. ANd this is a matter of faith and God....she believes not running would be an insult to God. She will run, she may not win, but she will run.
Your assertions would make Sarah a liar when she recently said the following to David Brody in Iowa. Sarah isn't a liar. She says hasn't made a decision yet.
Sarah Palin: “There is still a lot of contemplation that goes on within a family, deciding whether to engage in such a life-changing venture, putting yourself forward in the name of service, in such a position as President of the United States. So, we’re still thinking about it, and the impact on family. Family comes first in my life, and I just don’t want to adversely affect the family. So, we’re still talking about it, thinking about it. And that’s what I want supporters to understand. At the same time, I want to be very fair to supporters and not keep them hanging on in perpetuity. It’s fair to them to give them an answer here, in short order, so that they can jump on board with someone else. And/or to decide for themselves what they want to do. So, still haven’t made up my mind, haven’t decided when that announcement would be yet.”
David Brody: “Is that short order by the end of September? October?
Sarah Palin: “I think that that is a fair timeline for people, because Fall time, they can start getting engaged with different campaigns, but still thinking about it, and really, really desiring to be a participant in the positive change that needs to happen in this country. Economy getting back on the right track. Jobs created for Americans, I want to be a part of that whether it be as a candidate, or as a supporter of the right candidate. I’m still in that decision making phase.”