A few thoughts:
Yesterday--when the media excitement was kicking into high gear--the forecast indicated Irene would still be a Category 2 hurricane off the coast of New Jersey. Irene was expected to emerge from the NC Outer Banks intact as a Category 3 storm.
Second, The areas in the forecast track are experiencing the highest tides of the year right now. If the storm surge occurs at high tide, it adds several more feet of water to storm surge totals.
Third, the Northern Seaboard has been inundated with significant floods and rain already in the past several days. The ground is already saturated before the first rain band from Irene arrives. Many trees will be uprooted when the winds kick up from Irene.
Finally, there is a big difference between a wind gust and sustained hurricane winds. For a storm of this size, sustained winds will last for substantially longer than 24 hours (tropical storm force winds extend 290 miles from the center, presume 20 mph forward speed).
Ya, that’s all legitimate, but I’ll believe the hype when I see it.