Replies

FWIW

I talked to an acquaintance of mine last night. He used to be a bond trader and "retired" to do currency trading on his own. I have no reason to disbelieve him. I thought I was bearish. According to him, there are quite a lot of professional traders who know that this ship is going down (still a minority of traders, but not a small fringe). His advice was cash in the short run (better than most alternatives). For longer term, arable land and PMs (especially gold). Not as an investment, but as a way to hold some value as everything crashes.

His other point was that this is different than other economic crises, in that you can't expect equities and other investments to return in any reasonable time frame. People who tie their wealth to equities and real estate, thinking that they will do well in the long run, are going to get wiped out.

As I said, take it FWIW. The scenario he laid out was quite chilling. No country will be safe, and when global trade comes to a halt, the disruptions will be extreme. He also said to watch the USDA, for hints about when things are about to really collapse, but I didn't follow this too well.

Get out of the equities markets (Dow, S&P). As long as things are all right, food production may be a good investment, but I’d worry less about reaping a profit than I would just trying to maintain the purchasing power of the money I’ve earned.

If you switch out of the markets, put your 401Ks into some sort of liquidity like Fidelity cash reserves. They earn nothing but every dollar you put in is backed by a dollar of capital, so you have no real fear of losing what you put in. It just sits there. If and when they it starts looking like they are going to nationalize the private-retirement accounts, cash out, pay the penalty and taxes (that quick windfall would be part of their desired goal), keep some cash for as long as it has any purchasing power, and with the rest of it, purchase the goods you’ll need to survive. Don’t invest in ETF gold (paper gold or futures) with no physical delivery, if you invest in precious metals. Only purchase that which is delivered so you have it on-hand. Storable food, seeds, guns, ammo, water purification, reliable transportation, backup fuel.

If you have enough money and you are near an urban center, purchase a retreat in a small town a couple of hundred miles away and stock it.

My tag line has not changed in quite a while.