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Iran likely has enough 20% uranium, that if further refined to 90% would be enough fuel for an atomic weapon. They are holding at 20% and stockpiling at that level to avoid the drastic sanctions that would take place if they refine beyond 20% which is considered weaponization.

They have had substantial problems with their P-1 cascades that are obsolete and constantly being destroyed by the molybdenum in their yellow cake.

However, the molybdenum is gone by the time uranium gets to 20%. So for now they will keep refining to 20% turn that into plates for storage and just keep stockpiling.

Taking 20% uranium to 90% is relatively easy and they could do so in a very small facility. Each cascade would need a room the size of a double garage and the electrical power needed for a refrigerator to produce enough fuel for a bomb in one year.

We need to get used to a nuclear-weaponed Iran that cannot be stopped by us or Israel.

The best tactic is to keep doing what is being done, kill off their best engineers. Having the fuel is one thing, figuring how to deliver it to a target and light it off is quite another problem.

Iran's greatest threat is that it will sell weapons-grade fuel to others like Venezuela and Syria and Burma.......

I appreciate that info. It makes a lot of sense. Your grasp of what it takes to process uranium to the next step is ahead of my knowledge of the subject. What I do know, however, is the Iranian leadership is known for their endless capacity in the department of stalling and lying.

My biggest concern with their uranium stockpiles is the true percentage and overall amount. They have only admitted to having 20% because they've been caught with evidence of material enriched beyond 5%. They attempted (lamely) to explain this away by claiming it was for "research and medicine."

So the question seems to be: How long have they had material at 20% and how much do they have? Seems like they've been there for years and probably have enough material for a few weapons.....just my opinion.

I somewhat disagree with your assessment they may have the material, but cannot make it into a deliverable weapon. According to many sources, including the NYT reporter James Risen, the Iranians were able to score a major engineering coup during Operaion Merlin. In that particular CIA op under Clinton, we provided the Iranians with the plans for a W-87 or -88 style warhead.

A former Soviet nuclear scientist was supposed to be their contact and give them plans for a weapon with purposely flawed information. The idea was they would not have the technical expertise to figure it out. Problem was, the operative betrayed us and gave them a blueprint AND appropriate corrections.

Processing the material for it and constructing the weapon with the proper precision and tolerances would seem to be the only missing pieces. I am not sure they need an Oppenheimer or AQ Khan type equivalent for that.