[EandH Dad]

Kagan will have to recuse herself since she wrote the defense argument. A 4-4 tie lets stand the lower court ruling. Without the mandate it has to pass the full house because it was passed as a budget recocilliation. O-care is DOA.

[10thAmendmentGuy]

A 4-4 split is not going to happen. I think you are mistaken if you think Chief Justice Roberts is going to strike down the mandate. Justice Roberts signed onto the majority opinion in United States v. Comstock last year, which was written by Justice Breyer. Justice Breyer wrote that by virtue of the Necessary and Proper clause, the federal government is allowed to order the civil commitment of a mentally ill, sexually dangerous person beyond the conclusion of his sentence. He was joined in this opinion by Roberts, Stevens, Ginsburg and Sotomayor. The two dissenters were Scalia and Thomas (the two most reliable conservative justices). Even if Kagan recuses herself (which she should, but no SCOTUS justice can be forced to recuse themselves), you still have 3 reliable votes for the mandate (the liberals: Sotomayor, Ginsburg and Breyer). Kennedy has always taken a broad and perverted view of the Commerce Clause, so that is 4. The 5th vote will come from Roberts. So in my opinion, the decision will be at least 5-3 to uphold if Kagan recuses herself, and 6-3 if she does not.