[Mariner]

It's likely the UN suspects regime collapse, chaos, Turkish intervention and an ongoing war against Hezbollah.

It would likely then spill over to Lebanon.

I hope we stay out of it. It's an Arab problem.

[jhpigott]

Plausible scenario. If the Assad regime goes down (along with the minority ruling Alawite sect) it will likely be replaced by somekind of Sunni backed government (Sunnis make up approx 3/4 of the population) which is not going to back Hezbollah. Hezbollah would very quickly find one of its two primary supporters gone, and there main logistal support gone. Things would very likely get screwy in Lebanon (and perhaps the Israel/Lebanon border as well) in short order.