I think you’re close to the mark on much of what you write. I have never believed she would run (she’s not presently electable in my opinion), but I actually think she’s doing damage to her own brand. This hide-the-ball, on-again, off-again approach makes her look indecisive or excessively calculating, neither of which are especially flattering, and both of which cut against the advertised elements of her character - the principled, decisive, toughness that attracted many to her in the first place. I also think the coming announcement that she isn’t running, will hit some of her devoted following (especially around here) very hard, and is sure to alienate some of them; that’s not a desirable outcome. I can well understand her wanting to be a force in conservative politics, and indeed I welcome her contribution, but I think the longer this goes on, the less credible she seems in any leadership capacity.
I understand “Paul Ryan” might be declaring his run ...says he’ll let us know within the next two weeks! So as with Palin, he’s not going to declare either way until around Sept 1st. ...and Trumps still saying he might run.