There were those who said it was our 'Corner Crew' that drove the Gork right over the edge.
Ahhh, memories . . . 
Posted on 08/16/2011 8:11:57 PM PDT by RonDog
Accidental Good Fortune? Or Strategic Genius By The Woman Tony Knowles Called ‘Alley Cat Smart’ Guest Submission by “John Smith” I suspect that even in 2008, Sarah Palin had a general idea that she’d run for President in 2012 depending on how the next 20 months or so played out. After all, she admitted as much on The Bob & Mark show then as Kelsey recorded here. Well, in terms of how things went in the midterms, the general mood of the country, and President Obama’s performance, things couldn’t have played out any better for her 2012 chances. Oh, she’s had some high moments and some low moments, but, going into the late spring, everything lined up as well as could be expected for a Palin 1976 style run of her versus the establishment, with all Anyone But Palin (ABP) forces coalescing around Mitt Romney. Then Michelle Bachmann started looking more and more like she was ready to enter the fray, especially as the bus tour came to a close on June 2. That, in turn, created a difficult dynamic. It would be tough enough to go one on one against Romney with all ABP forces behind Romney. Leaving aside the stalking horse theories, it would have been infinitely more difficult to confront that challenge AND ward off Bachmann’s attack from the right flank at the same time (she may not have seen Bachmann as a threat to eclipse her, but she most assuredly knew the dynamic put Romney in the cat bird’s seat. That’s when I think Palin called an audible and laid the seeds to bait Rick Perry into the race. This is complete speculation, the type of thing one believes if one thinks Palin, as Tony Knowles once said, is ‘alley cat’ smart . . . On the bus tour at the beginning of the summer, she twice offered unsolicited praise for Rick Perry, suggesting that he’d make a fine candidate for President. The first mention came early in the tour. The second mention came on the last day of the tour, in an interview with Sean Hannity. What made this interesting is that she never before or since specifically made unsolicited mention of a potential candidate. She knew perfectly well that Perry continued to say that he had no interest in running, and she knew perfectly well that stories were coming out at the same time that Perry did not see a path to the nomination for himself if Palin were in the race. Then, after June 2, Palin did the strangest thing. She disappeared. She retreated to Alaska. One week later, Newt Gingrich’s entire Iowa campaign team, which included long time Perry campaign people, resigned en masse. The “Perry for President” talk began in earnest. For the rest of the month, Palin pretty much stayed out of sight. We later heard something about jury duty, even though the jury duty didn’t begin until July 1. In total, Palin wrote very little and said very little over a 70 day period. When she would talk 2012, she’d say she had a fire in the belly but otherwise still was contemplating. To an experienced political pro, I suspect that looked like she was saying “I’d rather be kingmaker for the right person”. So, the Perry machine got ready for an entry to the race, and it was clear two weeks ago that Perry was in for one simple reason: He saw a GOP race without Palin shaping up like the Texas 2010 primary. On one side, you had the DC establishment person in Romney (not unlike Kay Bailey Hutchinson in Texas). On the other side, you had the nutty purer tea party type in Bachmann (not unlike Debra Medina in Texas). So, the Perry plan would be to run like he did in 2010: Appeal to tea party types, let the purer tea party type implode, and then use a Palin endorsement at the perfect moment to seal the win against the DC establishment opponent. It’s a really smart plan if Palin is sitting out the race. But, then, about 10 days ago, the damndest thing happened. Palin re-tweeted an article about Perry’s spending and debt record. A week ago, Palin then announced she was restarting the bus tour and would be including a stop at the Iowa state fair. During interviews at the fair, she took a few jabs at Perry, and a few more at Bachmann. All of this raised an interesting question: If Palin was planning to endorse Perry, then why fire a few shots across his bow? If she’s not going to endorse Perry and we know she won’t endorse Bachmann or Romney, then what’s her game plan? Well, maybe the game plan is that she’s running (that she’s always been running) and holding off the announcement as long as possible. This, of course, begs two obvious questions: One, if she’s running without declaring, then why abruptly end the bus tour with the “time to take Piper back for school” excuse? Two, why is she holding off the announcement as long as possible? The answer to both questions is the same: As Sun Tzu wrote, “All warfare is based on deception.” Time for a little more speculation: While Rick Perry has visions of a race that shapes up like the 2010 Texas GOP primary, Sarah Palin sees a race that can shape up like the 2006 Alaska GOP primary if she goes pretty much dark for two more weeks. Why two more weeks? Michelle Bachmann is under the full glare of the media after her straw poll victory. She’s got Rick Perry employing his 2010 primary playbook. Simply put, Bachmann, already polling worse and bleeding support more than others care to admit, will be in Cain territory in two weeks. At the same time, the Perry versus Romney war has begun and will be in full bloom in two weeks (and, frankly, more likely by this weekend). In two weeks, Bachmann will be pretty much out of it, and Perry will have a slight advantage over Romney, and an expected Palin endorsement of Perry coming to seal the deal, exactly how Perry’s team envisioned things when he entered the race. There’s just one problem with that theory: I don’t think that’s Palin’s plan. Endorsing Perry is the safe play, perhaps the conventionally smart play. But, then I remember hearing somewhere a politician who doesn’t act like a typical politician note that “a ship in harbor is safe, but that’s not why the ship was built”. I think about how that person is anything but conventional. I think of that person often talking and writing about how she’d rather sleep well than eat well. And, I begin to realize that, whether by design or coincidence, what looks like a plan has come together: While Rick Perry may have visions of 2010, I suspect that Palin has visions of 2006. Everyone knows the GOP primary was a three way race. You had Murkowski, the serious challenger in Bitney, and Palin, who was seen as an afterthought initially. Murkowski and Bitney exchanged blows. Palin avoided a lot of direct fire. Then came the “Alaskans deserve better” moment in the debate in which everyone realized that Palin had transcended both of them. Think about that. Then envision Palin versus Perry versus Romney. Put another way, imagine the 2010 Texas GOP primary IF Perry hadn’t gotten a Palin endorsement and IF Medina hadn’t imploded. Simply put, it would have been anyone’s game. If you’re Perry, are you going to attack Palin if she enters the race? No, you don’t. First of all, he needs to focus on Romney. Second, his initial strategy would be to hope Palin fizzles quickly. Third, he’d view Palin as being the kingmaker at some point, even if it were at a brokered convention. Oh, he’d fire some shots across her bow, but it wouldn’t be a full blown attack. Now, if you’re Romney, you’d like nothing better than to take Palin out immediately. The problem with that is twofold. One, if you take Palin out, you pretty much assure her supporters and her support goes to Perry. Maybe that’s inevitable, but the last thing you want is to be fighting BOTH Perry and Palin at the same time. Two, like Bitney with Murkowski, Perry is seen as the more direct threat to Romney’s base of support. So, even from Romney, Palin would avoid a lot of the direct fire, at least for a time. Speaking of Bachmann, I suspect that Tim Pawlenty’s departure from the race led to another mini audible. I’m not suggesting that Palin wasn’t going herself to get Piper back to school. But, with Pawlenty in the race, you had a Pawlenty versus Bachmann undercard. Now, you don’t. What to do? Well, why not disappear again and let Bachmann deal with the withering scrutiny and Perry for two weeks? Think about it: At the end of the month, the GOP primary effectively will be Perry versus Romney. Oh, some people out there will be trying to build up Bachmann still, but she’ll be done because most of her support will be soft (perhaps it always has been soft anyway, but I digress). But, Palin won’t have to bother with her in the same way you had a Pawlenty versus Bachmann undercard. While she’ll have to ignore what I expect to be a lot of instigation from Bachmann, Palin simply will eclipse her in the end. Then, what briefly had become a two horse race gets transformed back into a three horse race, where she’ll get her chance to transcend the two quote “serious” primary candidates, just like she did in 2006 in Alaska. What once would have been a Palin versus Romney one on one or a Palin versus Romney and Bachmann handicap match could at the end of the month be a three way race in which ABP forces are divided and thus more easily (relatively speaking) conquered IF Palin closes the sale with those primary voters who I suspect in the end will be hers to lose. Anyway, that’s my epiphany du jour. Maybe there’s nothing to it. Or, maybe Sarah Palin really is “alley cat” smart.Posted on August 16 2011 - 8:49 PM - Posted by: Submissions
Sarah Palin’s political tactics always have been unconventional. Supporters like me know this, and even we alternate between “aha” moments and total confusion as to what she’s doing. As we’ve watched the GOP primary season evolve, as we’ve watched Bachmann and Perry enter the race and have tried to digest all of the quote “mixed signals” from Palin herself, it is hard not to arrive at the conclusion that she might not run after all. That conclusion would be wrong, for while her tactics may seem and probably are unconventional, her strategy has always been obvious. She’s running, and she probably has been since November 2008.
If that is the only thing she does, it will still be a great service to us all, pro or con SP. I want her to of course run, but everything she is doing is forcing conservative discussion around the country where it wasn’t happening before. Win/win regardless of anything else.
And horrible for the Lib/Dems.
No, he is not Old Guard.More like a former Texas Tory Democrat. That’s what Al Gore was until he lost in ‘88. He reminds of of Allan Shivers who was big in Texas politics during the ‘40s and ‘50s. Supported Eisenhower in ‘52.
Can't let that one slide by... Gore was a flat out lib well prior to 88. Check his ACU ratings... Just sayin'
RonDog, Thanks for an excellent article. Like Bill I am delighted to see Sarah's chess moves. As you point out she is so inside the loop her opponents cannot even figure out what she is doing. She has the smarts of a Aikido Master.
Living so close to nature as she and her family does in Alaska, as well as hunting and fishing, I see that she has developed that almost intuitive sense of how to track game and find the fish. You see it in her moves in politics. And you see her intense competitive drive tempered by knowing when to wait for the right move.
When she left the Governorship in Alaska immediately I was saying "Yess!!! Perfect." It was such a brilliant move. Totally unexpected and it ruined the whole plan her opponents had to corner, focus, freeze and destroy her. This is why the trolls bring it up all the time. They cannot stand that she just stepped aside and let them fall on their faces.
We have not seen this level of political gamesmanship and mastery in a very long time.
RonDog, were you just in Iowa? Did I see you in a news photo of an event there?
Mr Sol
It’s true that Gore had certain positions that put him in on the Rabid Right looked at through the prism of today. But...
As I said on a post last night, the 80s were my coming of age politically and that era shaped a lot om my opinions. I had a special interest in Gore because of Tipper’s PMRC garbage and environmental issues that devistated my hometown/area (logging). That continued throughout the 90s as I wrote heavily on land-use issues while Senior Ed at off-road.com (for obvious reasons.)
Gore has been a fanatical hardcore liberal forever. Free Republic is an archive of Gore’s life from the 2000 election. His many books and writings alone tell the story of a barking moonbat from day 1. Many of his ‘conservative’ positions were public consumption only, culminating in a hail of ‘safe votes’ public speeches that held no water and just flat out BS.
Perry was well aware of the real Al Gore working on his campaign. Yes that was a long time ago. Had Gore been stopped from increasing political power THEN, we would live in a far better world today. That alone is reason enough to stop Perry. He knew about and helped enable the global warming scare Gore was pushing hard in “1983”. Funny he (Perry) twists that period of his life today. Leopards do not change their spots. Not that thoroughly.
As I say, we ALL need to do our homework on him. The Gore stuff is one small part of a lifetime of non-conservative actions. This is not a matter of a hardcore Palinista trolling Perry supporters. This is real and VERY serious stuff... and people need to learn the truth for themselves.
I wholeheartedly agree.
He modeled himself after his old man for a long while. He began to change his stripes in the ‘80s. This was in recognition of the power that the liberals in party acquired after ‘72. The signal issues of the chage were Vietnam and Abortion. Things can change in a hurry. There was still Democrat hawks and Democrat pro-life people in the late ‘70s, but then there came a sea change. 1980 was the pivot point of no return for the Democrats.
Politicians change their spots all the time. Reagan was a liberal Democrat who took more than 10 years to change his views. Of course there are ideologues like Pelosi and Waxman, whose vuiews are the same as they were forty years ago.
No, I have not been in Iowa for a long time.
And, I probably will not be there on 9/3 for the impending “fireworks,” either. :(
I need to find a way to transcend my pesky current “day job.”
Politicians going from support of hardcore liberals to Rightwing presidential candidates are not to be trusted. Ronald Reagan was never close to a radical lib as a democrat and is famously quoted as saying that the Democrat Party left him...that was due to their encroaching liberalism.
Your opinion and vote is your own for whatever reasons you choose. But can you honestly say that you actually “trust” a pol that swung so far? Especially when his record since in office to date shows he’s no solid conservative?
An open border supporting speech IN MEXICO?
Trying to force a dangerous drug that has resulted in serious adverse reactions on teen girls over parental wishes?
Allowing dangerous Mexican trucks/drivers on American highways?
I cannot support that kind of man.
There were those who said it was our 'Corner Crew' that drove the Gork right over the edge.
Ahhh, memories . . .
I’m leaning to the 3rd, too, because its the Tea Party AND the anniversary of that incredible night at the RNC.
LLS
You are right. This is Jack Bauer seris...
If it was a leak, she will find it
LLS
PING to #10—important information there. Sarah met with O4P and they kept working after she left.
Interesting article. One phrase gets to the heart of Palin’s success and popularity: “Palin had transcended both of them”.
Thanks.
You can add this tidbit as well: Peter Singleton, the next day released a statement after the Ames Straw Poll talking about how they of O4P didn’t participate and didn’t want to participate in the event, but at the end noted that he fully expects Palin to enter the race soon. Again, he met Sarah the day before and stayed with her the rest of the afternoon and still stated that he fully expects her to enter the race, the next day. She’s running alright and is not stringing people along as some would try to say.
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