They’re gonna have to dig up a 3rd party candidate to split up the opposition if he’s to have any chance. If this keeps up, even that may not save him!
*************************
It would take the combination of a weak or unpopular GOP candidate and a third party candidate. Romney could still win it for Obama.
If the GOP chooses Romney, and Palin were to jump ship and form her own party, yes, it’s quite possible still.
Obama is weaker than Wilson, though.
And you have to remember that Obama’s support is broad, but not very deep. His highest approval rating at present is in Connecticut. Wilson was topping out around 90 percent in the deep south. Wilson had a base of about 120 EC votes that he won by at least 30 percentage points.
Obama’s not even leading by 20 anywhere anymore. So the support is much weaker for him.
Given a three way split, his numbers would still be very favourable at this point, but even the third place person would be around 29 percent if he’s at 39.
If he weakens around to 35 he’s toast.