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First off, I’ll preface this by saying my opposition to the squish Perry grows by the day. Any candidate who is open borders and panders to illegals in their actions doesn’t have my support whatsoever, as I explained in a post last night.

As for your point about McCain vs. Dubya (with respect to California), the irony that McCain was claimed to be “better suited” to California’s “moderate” (sic) voters (as proclaimed by the media/political establishment) and yet he only received a paltry 37%. This was quite literally the worst performance for a GOP Presidential candidate (excluding the extraordinary 1992 three-way race where Bush, Sr. received only 33%) in a 2-way race since “Moderate” Alf Landon in 1936 when he received 32%. Even Barry Goldwater received 41% in 1964 (although he carried just 5 counties). Dubya received 44% in 2004.

Obviously, this debunks the myth that a “moderate” is inherently a better choice to run, one I’ve said all along. However, in saying that, California at present I hold out little to no hope that it will support a GOP Presidential candidate of any stripe. Sadly, a majority of the state can best be described as a (leftist political) drug addict. At some point, quite soon, if not already, it is going to be consuming itself and it will collapse in on itself. Those that are tired of being fed upon by the parasites will vote with their feet.

Add to that that the GOP brand is damaged in California.

I viscerally opposed Ah-nold 8 years ago because I rightfully predicted, as a Socialist, he would leave the state and state party in disastrous shape and get the party painted with the broad brushstroke of his terrible policies (even if Conservative Republicans opposed him). With Whitman (and Fiorina) it demonstrated a continuation of this failure. Perry is demonstrably not much different than those so-called “moderates” (talk is cheap, always pay attention to the policies — non-Conservatives always seem to “discover” Conservatism before an election and just as quickly discard it afterwards, and that applies to Democrats, too) and I expect his performance to probably be equal to theirs (scoring perhaps somewhere above McCain’s 37% and below Dubya’s 44% were he the nominee).

Even with Palin as the nominee, for which I wholeheartedly endorse and support, it is doubtful she could change the equation in the state at present. The state will have to crash and crash badly with Democrats fully at the helm before some of the remaining sane souls start to change their voting habits. The CA Democrats will still choose to blame national Republicans for their disastrous mess (much like how in urban areas that Democrats have blamed Republicans to keep non-Whites on the plantation despite the fact that most Republicans have had little to zero input in that local governance for decades, Detroit a prime example of that). There’s a psychological element to this, but I won’t rehash it here.

However, in saying that, California at present I hold out little to no hope that it will support a GOP Presidential candidate of any stripe. Sadly, a majority of the state can best be described as a (leftist political) drug addict.

I wonder who the "swing" vote in the state is anymore. The electoral maps over time have shown practically the entire coast morph into moonbat territory, and the big GOP margins in Southern Cal, particularly Orange Co. and San Diego Co., have declined dramatically. (Obama even won San Diego County in 08)

If Tom McClintock is any indication, a clear conservative choice can run up the margin pretty close, but there's always that last little bit that he couldn't scale. Looking at the 06 Lt. Gov race, he won 60% in populous Orange County, great performance given how the county has dwindled for the GOP, but just 36% in Los Angeles County. The numbers are almost identical in his even closer 2002 Controller race. (Winning Republicans tend to run just a little bit behind in Los Angeles County at least)

I'd say offering a clear-cut choice will help, but there needs to be some serious grassroots work in the Los Angeles area and in Central CA. People in those regions simply aren't budging much. Push up the numbers there, and you can win the state. As it is, the Dem wave has nearly claimed all of the coast and is pushing its way through the Sacremento metro area. Of course, you need a stronger CA GOP to pull off a reversal...

Yeah, I'd say the state isn't moving back to us any time soon.

First off, I’ll preface this by saying my opposition to the squish Perry grows by the day.

Oppose him for the nomination all you want - he's by no means ideal - but he meets my threshold for general election support and right now seems like the likeliest nominee.

Maybe Republicans will win back a bare majority in the Senate in 2012, maybe not -- but if Obama's still in power it will be nigh impossible to repeal Obamacare and change the course that Obama & co have set toward outright socialism.

I have high standards -- but low expectations. I think a Perry presidency would be reasonably positive for conservatives.