I'll be the first to claim (and it appears the only one willing to on the FR) that I have little expertise on military matters. But one claim I feel I can make without even studying it, is that the listed nations above, except Australia, have very limited military capabilities COMMENSURATE with its population. In other words, if there is an arms race in Asia, I doubt very much they will throw the full weight of their economy behind it like the former USSR, North Korea, Iraq, etc. But instead, will likely continue to build towards something equivalent to their Western counter parts. And in that area, there is a long ways to go if it is even achieved.
China would have to have 50 Nimitz carriers to be proportional to the US in population. China may have that ability someday, but even if she did, I doubt she would build 50.
And same with India, proportionally speaking, it would be like them having 40 Nimitz carriers. But that definitely isn't going to happen.
And South Korea would have to have something on par or near parity with Britain and France. And Japan would need about 5 Nimtz carriers for something commensurate with the US.
So, in reality, China may cause an arms race, but I really doubt its going to raise their capabilities even to the level of Western standards commensurate with their population.
However, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia both have militries beyond Western capabilities commensurate with their population. I read, that Saudi Arabia, with half the population of Britain, has more 4th generation jet fighters than Britain.
An arms race in Asia? It may look like it, but the hard numbers in relation to their population will prove otherwise. Really, check the numbers and you will see that I am right. Compare quanity of Western equipment with population, with Western Pacific nations, with Middle Eastern nations. You'll find that the Middle East has more of an arms race going. AND GUESS WHAT??!! They're all supplied by Western defense industries :)
China is planning on dropping her active duty personnel from 2.5 million to 2 million soon. That would be like Canada having 60,000 active military personnel. But she has roughly 67,000. And I'm sure, I could make the same arguement in regards to 4th generation fighters, not just for China, but for the rest of the Asian countries. And of course, a country like Saudi Arabia would be on the other end of the spectrum.
So, arms race in the Wester Pacific? Maybe, but hardly something to be concerned with.
You may not think a Chinese sponsored arms race is something to be concerned with but India, Vietnam and the Philippines would differ with you on that point. Check out China’s claims on the oil rights of the South China Sea. They are saying that the whole thing is a Chinese lake.