Posted on 08/02/2011 11:07:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Bad news comes out of the must-carry state of Pennsylvania today for Barack Obama and his re-election hopes. Not only has Obama fallen far below water in his approval rating in the latest Quinnipiac poll, he has now dropped into a tie against a potential Republican nominee. No, this isn’t a generic Republican, either:
The protracted slugfest over raising the national debt limit leaves President Barack Obama with a 54 – 43 percent disapproval among Pennsylvania voters, but he scores better than Republicans or Democrats in Congress, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. …
Pennsylvania voters say 52 – 42 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected. Matching the president against possible Republican challengers shows:
- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 44 percent to Obama’s 42 percent;
- Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 43 percent to Obama’s 45 percent;
- Obama leads Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann 47 – 39 percent;
- Obama tops Texas Gov. Rick Perry 45 – 39 percent.
The internals of the poll look even worse for Obama. The overall deserves-re-election number is 42/52, a very bad number in Democrat-heavy Pennsylvania, where Democrats account for half of all registered voters. Independents split almost exactly the same at 42/51, and the only region in which Obama has a majority for re-election is Philadelphia. Even among union households, which should be Obama’s bread and butter, he only gets a narrow 48/45 split, roughly a virtual tie.
The head-to-head numbers are simply embarrassing for a Democratic President in Pennsylvania, especially against a former Keystone State Senator who got blown out in his last statewide election. There is another reason to worry, too, in that series. Obama doesn’t get to 50% against any Republican in head-to-head matchups, usually a big red flag for incumbents. The best he does is 47% against Michele Bachmann.
If Obama is doing this badly in Pennsylvania, it strongly suggests a big opening in the Rust Belt for Republicans next year. Democrats in Michigan have a similar registration advantage, but not in Ohio, Indiana, or even Wisconsin, which have similar demographics as Pennsylvania and all of which Obama carried in 2008. Obama has a big, big problem in this region, and losing Pennsylvania might just be the beginning of his woes.
The same poll says Pennsylvanians thinks Sen. (Clueless) Casey deserves to be re-elected 47 - 33 percent. The only way they could get those numbers is if the poll was taken in heavily democratic Philly and Pittsburgh. So, IMHO, things are even worse for Barry than it looks.
Minnesota is the key State this go around, I believe. If Minnesota can be convinced to go for the Republican nominee, I believe that Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Missouri will go as well. That, plus Florida, would be enough to close all paths for Obama to be re-elected.
Obama won 95 of 106 EV from those States last time. Those States he won last time will be worth 94 EV this time. Subtract that from his 365 he won last time and you end up with 271, but with NY losing 2 EV, and MA, NJ and IL losing 1 EV each with no balancers (NV added 1 and WA added 1, but AZ and UT balance them out), he will be sitting at 267 EV.
If he is at 267, what State did he miss last time that he can pick up this time?
That is giving him NC and VA again, which doesn’t seem likely.
He is NOT popular in this state, even amongst Democrats.
The only exceptions being black communities in inner-city Pittsburgh and Philly. If Hillary wants to challenge him she’d get a red-carpet welcome in the PA Democrat Primary.
Wisconsin and Michigan are unlikely...so is Illinois. Minnesota we have SOME chance with. If obama hold, min, wis, ill, mich and Colorado...while losing the south except Virginia...we’re near a virtual tie. Him having a slight lead. VA will be critical. Ohio and indiana will go red...they were too close in the last election to stay blue. It’s very likely VA will go red as well.
My guess is that we have someone strong in the south and then someone popular around the northeast as vp. Hopefully both are acceptable conservatives...mostly the first pick.
My guess we get 278, obama 255. If Obama stays at his current poll ratings, then he’ll lose PA, which would be very dangerous for his party. Hopefully he does, but PA philly is an area of Obama love...taking the rest of the state down with it.
Casey leads an unnamed Republican by only 47-35. A strong candidate, ala Toomey, would beat him.
Unfortunately, as of yet there is no strong candidate opposing him.
8 States in the Midwest: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.
In 2008: 2 Republican Governors (Blunt in Missouri, Daniels in Indiana), 6 Democrats. Obama won all States except Missouri.
In 2012: 3 Democrat Governors (Nixon in Missouri, Quinn in Illinois, Dayton in Minnesota), 5 Republicans. But even of the 3 Democrats, Nixon has to run as a Conservative Democrat in Missouri and Dayton won Minnesota by less than 2% in a 3 way race in Minnesota.
In the last 4 years, except for Illinois, the entire Midwest has turned sharply to the right. Snyder in Michigan and Walker in Wisconsin have made major impacts in their States and have convinced a lot of people to give the GOP a real chance at turning things around.
I don’t think Branstad can swing Iowa for us, but Snyder and Walker can bring Michigan and Wisconsin I believe. Daniels almost kept Obama from taking Indiana last time, no question Indiana goes red again in 2012. Kasich can bring in Ohio.
McCaskill is facing a very hard row to hoe in Missouri for her re-election... before a challenger has been determined. And Nixon won’t want to hitch his name to her or Obama. So Missouri will likely stay red.
IF (big if) Michigan and Wisconsin look like they will be competitive, THEN Minnesota becomes key. Because if it plays well in Minnesota, it will play well in northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan.
John Hoeven suddenly becomes a very big VP target for the GOP nominee. If Minnesota falls, all roads to re-election collapse for Obama.
Casey is almost invisible. He’s rarely seen or heard from, and when he is it is just to spout the lamest of the recent talking points. I think a WEAK candidat could beat him.
I hope you’re right, but I worry about the Daddy factor-half or more of the people who vote for him think they’re voting for his dad
You are 100 percent right.
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