This comment I like. But then how will we know when this has happened? Polls? CCB signed?? Democrats get slaughtered in 2012 election?
A good measure will be if no bill is passed by August 2nd, and the Dow Jones doesn't drop by a thousand points.
No bill would mean that the American government somehow has the guts to rein in spending and to get the debt under control, or a good shot at it. There is a good chance the market would like that.