***Affordability wise not an option? China will soon be have the largest GDP in the world (estimation time, about 2020)***
Are you a ChiCom diehard to suggest that the PRC can sustain the cost of an armada the size of the USN when even the US, which was the larges economy in the world for the last century and she still is, gets itself into the economic mess it’s in today?
Carriers are no fancy catamaran joyride in the warm and hazy sun of the Florida Keys. Carriers are self contained systems as the Battlestar Galacticas, it’s about USS Starship Enterprises, it’s about MC80a Star Cruisers and about Corellian Corvettes. Simply put: carriers costs an arm, a leg, and a fat bank account to maintain and operate and — somebody needs to pay for it. I doubt the ChiComs can handle it.
Bottom line: I don’t think the ChiComs are going to follow America’s lead because carriers are simply way too costly. I think they will go for the cheap, dime a dozen, fast pace to bang together carriers of the Varyag class where the words “expendable” and “numerical advantage” have to play into the picture.
I doubt the ChiComs can handle it.
Well, it depends. The China of today, no. But if China continues to develop, yes, it is possible. As China continues to reform her economy, she will eventually have greater resources than the US at her disposal. And no, I am not a "ChiCom" diehard.
Bottom line: I don’t think the ChiComs are going to follow America’s lead because carriers are simply way too costly. I think they will go for the cheap, dime a dozen, fast pace to bang together carriers of the Varyag class where the words “expendable” and “numerical advantage” have to play into the picture.
They'll start with something along the lines of Varyag, but eventually, they'll move up the ladder if it proves militarily more effective.
While there is talk about the potential China becoming the largest economy and question when or even whether she will achieve it, I personally believe there is an even higher marker people should look for. And that is the combined economic output of North America, European Union and Japan and Australia. Basically, all the developed nations combined. While I'm not sure China could ever surpass these combined countries in GDP, I believe, by 2040, she will come close.
Keep in mind, China's GDP was less than half the size of Canada's in about 1990 and 1/10th the size of Japan. And as recently as 2000 had a smaller GDP than all the major European countries (Ger, Fra, Ita, UK, Spn).
Consider electricity production. China's planned net gain in installed capacity the next 5 years will be larger than any country in the world, except the US. Keep in mind, I am just talking about the net gain. I could give you many examples where China's current GDP doesn't do it justice.
However, despite these resources, China isn't going to put a large chunk of her GDP into defense, contrary to what many wish to believe on the FR. Likely, China will continue to spend less as percentage of GDP than the US. But by her sheer economic size, it may someday be larger than the US.