True, but if memory serves me correctly, Alicia sat off shore a day or two longer than anticipated.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1858
The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center’s initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.
Here is the timeline for Alicia between TS formation and landfall:
08/15 18 GMT 27.2 91.0 45 1006 Tropical Storm
08/16 00 GMT 27.1 91.5 50 1005 Tropical Storm
08/16 06 GMT 27.0 92.0 60 1004 Tropical Storm
08/16 12 GMT 27.1 92.4 65 1002 Tropical Storm
08/16 18 GMT 27.3 92.8 70 998 Tropical Storm
08/17 00 GMT 27.4 93.3 75 991 Category 1 Hurricane
08/17 06 GMT 27.7 93.7 80 987 Category 1 Hurricane
08/17 12 GMT 27.9 94.2 85 983 Category 1 Hurricane
08/17 18 GMT 28.1 94.5 105 974 Category 2 Hurricane
08/18 00 GMT 28.4 94.8 110 969 Category 2 Hurricane
08/18 06 GMT 28.9 95.0 115 963 Major Hurricane
Don has a similar timeframe as it approches Texas.
Its the GOM canes that hang around drifting or circle around that get to be bad boys.