I remember this storm being 11. I could not go outside in the hammering rain over 4 days (well of course I eventually escaped). I remember lying in bed with the roof starting to leak thinking I'd never see the sun again.
Another Amelia is exactly what we need, 33 years later.
Good example. That TS got up to 50 mph with almost no distance to intensify. I just don’t see how Don stays below hurricane strength before landfall. But tropical systems can be strange beasts.
Early season tropical storm - gulf temps are only really up near shore, middle of the gulf along cone of uncertainty isn’t really indicative of major strengthening nor major water production. Fingers crossed that there’s much of a storm inland, especially for my friends in New Mexico, but I honestly don’t see this providing anywhere near the needed rainfall for those who are much inland.
This said, if the storm slows a bit, hits JUST the right spot in the middle of the pit in the gulf, and gets a bit of cooperation from mainland weather, it COULD develop into something reasonable. Maybe a 5% chance at most. Unfortunately, if all that does happen, it has a high chance of moving the cone a whole lot eastward. I don’t see a lot of inland Texas rain from this system, but we’re still very early in the season.