Posted on 07/25/2011 6:43:11 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
how exactly does the US “show around Red China”?
***”Just a couple years ago, the PRC shot down a satellite from Earth. The US shot down a satellite in 1985 with a missile launched from an F-15 flying at 80,000 feet.***
Hell, God knows how many Taiwanese U-2 pilots had been shot down over ChiCom terrains since the 60’s and the families of the downed pilots fuming mad the remains of these pilots to date still can’t be retrieved. In other words, this US U-2 is likely working on Taipei’s behalf possibly even piloted by Taiwanese.
The Chinese have enough problems as it is. Adding Taiwan to the list at this point doesn’t make a lot of sense.
If they try to take it, they will end up destroying it. It’s that simple.
If they do destroy it, there’s quite a bit of strategic good that comes from that of course, since a great deal of our electronics now comes from Taiwan.
They will have to deal with the hit to trade that would come from such a thing, and they are truly living in a ‘bicycle economy’ - one that is predicated on growth to outweigh the fact that they have massive debt, corruption issues, loads of unsold housing, and an increasingly restive middle class.
I would think they’ll coordinate whatever attack they are planning with the Russians, in any event.
You wouldn’t go after Taiwan unless you had a plan for ensuring that the US wouldn’t just go full scale on you.
Moscow’s not going to make the Afghanistan mistake twice. The objective was Saudi Arabia through Afghanistan. They got stuck in Afghanistan. The key to Afghanistan is the resolve to ‘pass through it’, not to occupy or try to change it. Trying to make rehab Afghanistan is like trying to get a horse to deal cards. It’s possible, but what’s the point?
Nobody seems cold-blooded enough to pull off an old-fashioned land war, or a tactical nuclear war either.
In the end, you have to be willing to enslave, eradicate, or convincingly win the peace. China and Russia together can’t do that. Russia has enough on its plate with the Ukraine, and with Georgia.
Russia and China, to win, have to be completely self sufficient in terms of both food and fuel. China’s going to become a net importer of wheat for the first time this year. Russia always has been an net wheat importer, even if it does have enough oil (though not enough refineries).
As stupid as this administration is, and despite the fact that we’d probably ALLOW such an invasion, the time to have struck would have been about 18 months ago, when there was still time in Obama’s term to really exploit his inexperience.
Kruschev was right to exploit Kennedy, and he got those missiles removed from Turkey. Kennedy was smart enough to stand up to Kruschev and commit the US to a global nuclear war should they decide to allow those missiles in Cuba.
Obama’s not half the man Kennedy was, and if the Chinese had taken Taiwan 18 months ago, the press would have helped Obama spin it into ‘well, we aren’t in that business anymore, anyway.’
Taking Taiwan now? Could happen, but why would you do it when it wouldn’t lead to the complete defeat of the United States?
Then again, insanity doesn’t need a reason, does it?
Yes, but he was still new, fresh, and cocky. Now with about 18 months left, he's tired, mired, and soon fired. He doesn't have the resolve to take on China as The Right Thing To Do(TM) when he can't resolve a basic managerial paperwork issue at home. His one war (Libya) was pathetic: couldn't even take down one measly third-rate dictator without fear of getting boots dirty. He doesn't want a real war, he doesn't care about the target, he just wants to get re-elected or exit in style. NOW is the time - the last time - to exploit such a situation; if not now, there won't be another such opportunity for decades (which begins to get notice on the Oriental long-term-plan paradigm).
why would you do it when it wouldn’t lead to the complete defeat of the United States?
It would. The key to strength is respect; to step into Taiwan and say "it's ours now", against an indifferent impotent POTUS, would vaporize that respect worldwide overnight. Like a wimp punching the class bully, who cowers in response and others lose all fear of.
insanity doesn’t need a reason, does it?
There's enough of that to go around now. The nuts have their opportunity. Either August proves very interesting, or it's status quo for a long time to come.
Hey, it's an amusing theory and I'm sticking to it.
I’m not saying you’re necessarily wrong.
We definitely live in interesting times.
Losing Taiwan wouldn’t end the US, I think, because we retain a lot of native manufacturing and design know-how.
I used to work in the circuit board manufacturing industry, and the Taiwanese don’t really know more than we do.
Same goes for wafer fab.
Unless there’s a fix from the inside, Taiwan won’t just go quietly. I may be wrong there too, but I doubt it.
Only their missiles.
I thought that at first too, but then I thought about it for a while. I doubt the missile would have much manueverabilty once it got up to the U-2s altitude. The U-2 OTOH.... Could probably evade the missile by out turning it. Sort of like the story I was told by an 'old hand' when I was a new butter bar. It involved an interceptor exercising against a B-36. The interceptor could get up to the B-36's altitude, just barely and was right on the edge of a stall. The B-36 literally flew circles around the interceptor.
There is or was a YF-12 at the Air Force Museum. That was to have been an interceptor version of the SR-71. You could walk under it as it sat on it’s gear. If you were tall enough, as I am, you’d have to duck a little to walk under the “keel”, but you could easily reach up and touch the belly of the beast. :)
>>>>>The U-2 couldn’t fly that fast and that high so it was the SR-71 on photo recon. No Zip Fishbed F would have ever caught it either although Powers was reportedly shot down by a Soviet MiG’s snap shot in a zoom climb, none of the existing MiGs could have had a chance of bagging a Black Bird.>>>>>>
In fact Soviets developed some tactics using Foxhounds in packs to intercept SR-71 by mid-80s rendering it about useless as a recon tool.
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