Posted on 07/21/2011 11:00:51 AM PDT by Maximum Scrunch
It’s a long way to go until November 2012, and it’s unclear who the Republicans will nominate to challenge President Obama, but polls continue to show that the race would be very competitive if the election were held today.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that President Obama would enjoy a modest 44% to 39% lead over Texas Governor Rick Perry. Given that choice, 10% would opt for a third-party candidate and eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
A separate survey shows that if Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is the nominee, Obama holds a 46% to 39% advantage. In that case, seven percent (7%) would choose a third candidate and eight percent (8%) are not sure.
Data released yesterday shows that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is in a toss-up with the president: Romney 43% Obama 42%.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The match-up surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters were conducted from July 6-7 and July 8-9, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for the surveys is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Romney does a bit better than Perry and Bachmann among Republican voters. That may reflect the unease of establishment Republicans with some of the other choices available. Romney also does better among unaffiliated voters. Among those voters, the former Governor leads Obama while Perry and Bachmann trail slightly.
It’s important to note, however, that Romney benefits from being perceived as the frontrunner. In 2004, the last time an incumbent president stood for re-election, Howard Dean was the early Democratic frontrunner and he polled best against George W. Bush. John Kerry was always a few points behind. However, once Kerry became the frontrunner in early 2008, his numbers became as good as Dean’s.
Polls conducted a year-and-a-half before an election provide a snapshot of where things are today but give little indication of what the mood might be on Election Day. If the economy substantially improves before November 2012, President Obama will be heavily favored to win re-election. If the opposite happens and the country endures a double-dip recession, just about any Republican challenger would be favored. If the economy stays as it is today, the race could be very competitive.
A good measure of the president’s re-election prospects is his Job Approval rating among likely voters. His final vote total is likely to be very close to his final Job Approval figures.
Romney leads the polls for the GOP nomination among Republican Primary voters. However, it is far too early for the polls to give a sense of who is likely to emerge as the Republican nominee. In 2008, John McCain never took the lead in a national primary poll until December 31, 2007.
When there is only one republican, he/she will lead Obama by 5. Should be 95, but there are so many morons around us...
I am with Rush on this. If the election was today, the GOP candidate, whoever it is, would mop the floor with Obummer. He cited internal polling that is devastating for the Rats. Anyone see the unemployment data today?
Perry and Bachman are very unknown outside of their home states and they are polling within single digits...that’s big...Romney is the most known name yet not really a household name....the kenyan is very vulnerable.
BUT BUT BUT we have to nominate a “moderate” to have any chance against Dear Reader in 2012! All the “News Media” political “experts” tell us so! /s
**Anyone see the unemployment data today?**
I still say Obama is president until Jan 20, 2017.
Well I extend a single digit to Obama!
No he doesn’t. He sucks and everyone who has a partial brain knows it.
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