Posted on 07/19/2011 7:43:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Original post: Nobody's expecting too much.
575K on an annualized rate is the prediction. That's just up from the previous 560K, but we're still bouncing around all-time historical lows.
Number out in a moment.
Update: Okay, not as horrible as it could have been.
Housing starts came in at an annualized 629K pace, a 14.6% jump rom a revised 549K.
Permits of 624K was also ahead of expectations of 595K.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Why?
Who is going to buy these new houses?
ISH Global Insight's take on the report:
For once in a long time there was some good news in this report. The market for multi-family homes is coming back to life—very slowly—but the foundations are in place. Multi-family permits increased 6.9%, to a 217,000 annual rate, the highest level since October 2008. Multi-family permits were up in the South, West, and Midwest, but down in the Northeast. Overall, multi-family permits (and starts) are trending up ever so slightly nationally and in all four regions.
Still, some of June’s numbers were not so rosy. Single-family permits rose only 0.5%, to a 407,000 annual rate, the 13th-lowest reading on record (data start in 1960). Single-family permits were down in the Northeast and West, flat in the South, and up in the Midwest. The bottom line: single-family home construction is still stuck near the bottom, and the near-term outlook is for more of the same.
Anticipating a Sarah Palin victory in 2012?
These numbers are meaningless without a breakdown by region, housing types, other variables....
A few pockets of ‘boom town’ (like the South Dakota oil fields) can skew the top-line figures to indicate, falsely, that the whole nation is ‘doing better’.....
More “Fun With Numbers” from the DemocRATS.
That is what I’m wondering. I’ve seen houses being built near where I live, yet over half of all sales are foreclosures - and they are selling for less than what it costs to build a house. So who is supposed to buy these houses when finished?
From yesterday...article in St Pete Times...building drops 11% in this area
Good news, bad news, it doesn't matter...it's always unexpected. What does that tell you about the forecasting or understanding of what is going on?
New household formations average 1.1 million per year and teardowns/fires/second homes/etc. equal 400K per year. There is a built in need for 1.5 million starts per year. Since we've been averaging 600K for the last 3 years we are running 40% of normalized demand and the excess is (slowly) being sucked up by the vacant houses/foreclosures. We probably have 2 more years of starts in the 600-700K range before we see meaningful improvement toward the 50 year average starts of 1.5 million.
Check Washington DC.
Multi-family homes = apartments! Tent cities -- Obamatowns -- would be so 1930s!
From ISI:
• Housing starts jumped 14.6% in June to a 0.624 million pace. Building permits also rose, up 2.5%.
• May’s housing starts was revised modestly lower.
• The rise in starts and building permits probably reflects a “catch-up” from severe weather in the winter and early spring.
• Both single family and multi family posted good gains.
• Single family starts, which have more influence upon overall economic growth, is back to the level witness last June.
Yes, after tornado season, it will go up. This year had seen lot of damages in cities.
[Who is going to buy these new houses?]
States like North Dakota and Texas, are booming and there are housing shortages in both places. The population is shifting to these states. Of course, the states they leave, decline even faster.
This is a false and misleading statistic.
Apartments are factored into housing starts. Investors are building apartments for all those that can no longer afford an individual home.
Anticipation of the burst of the last remaining real estate bubble, commercial. This means that they expect to get big federal subsidies and payoffs in this election cycle. A 60/40 split of our money with the Obama campaign, no doubt.
Hmm... It has been a while since I had Economics 101... can someone remind me what the law of supply and demand says about dumping more product into falling demand in an already saturated market?
True, and then they. Have those revised figure things. LOL
Yes, all those permits are counted as new construction, not replacement, well it does not help Obummer to point out the real facts.
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