If it’s the general, lots on the fence will stick with Obama.
If it’s the primary, I’m now giving him an at least equal shot with Romney and Palin. I really think our candidate will end up being one of the three. And I’ll volunteer further my bias: I think Palin is the one of those three who can beat Obama.
We really don’t have to worry about the northeastern states as they’re expected to be blue anyway. We worry about Ohio, MI, Fl, PA and IA. We MUST defeat Obama.