You are correct that the Kinsey numbers were for the entire weekend; we apparently have friday and saturday numbers, and I would expect they’ll go up today.
And yes, you can draw some conclusions based on the numbers; you don’t however know whether a movie will be a success or not based on a 10-theater test release, especially when you know there are millions of adoring fans who would watch any movie about Palin.
I’ve seen this enough times with the Christian movie genre, you can do a limited release and get a good return, but often they simply do church releases and then go direct-to-DCD (for example, “The Imposter” with Kerry Livgren, which also did mostly word-of-mouth advertising).
I would expect the 10 theaters to be sold out most of the weekend. The Palin supporters in those cities, who want her to get into the race, would see attendance as a “poll”, and would vote by attending to show how popular she is.
No, that's what Mitt Romney supporters would do. All the Palin supporters I know just want to see the movie. They're not interested in Astroturfing and straw poll stacking type stuff.