Pawlenty makes $200k ad wager, largest yet in race

Cedar Rapids Gazette ^ | 07/16/2011 | AP

[iowamark]

Tim Pawlenty, whose poll numbers have been stagnant in Iowa, has reserved roughly $200,000 of television advertising time in the state, the largest purchase yet by anyone in a 2012 presidential race that’s much more frugal with advertising dollars than four years ago.

The ad buy represents a substantial wager for the former Minnesota governor, who reported Friday that he had $1.4 million to spend on the 2012 primary campaign at the end of June. Despite more than a year and a half of networking in his neighboring state of Iowa, polls show support for Pawlenty in the single digits.

Pawlenty has said his campaign needs to demonstrate momentum at the straw poll, a test of campaign support in the leadoff caucus state. Earlier in the year he said he would need to “win or do very well” in the February caucuses but he has recently tried to lower those expectations...

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

Pawlenty has said his campaign needs to demonstrate momentum at the straw poll vote auction, a test of campaign support in the leadoff caucus state

Fixed.

[ex-snook]

Everyone is running on the same ‘I’m better than Obama’, so I hope he distinguishes what he wants to do if elected.

[Sic Parvis Magna]

If these ads are as effective as his last series of ads (which didn't appear to be very effective), I don't think the needle isn't going to move much.

As much time and money as he's poured into Iowa, you would think he would be in a better position than he is.

[campaignPete R-CT]

anybody on the ground in Iowa wanna give us a report on the goings ons related to the straw poll in 28 days?

anybody on here doing anything in IA?

[RED SOUTH]

Pawlenty has 2 problems , his rino record and his complete lack of charisma. He can spend 2 million in ads and his poll numbers will still suck.

[Pappy Smear]

My 2 cents from what is going on in Central Iowa. But first my personal disclosures: I will probably go to the Ames Straw Poll, though I am still undecided, because I am waiting to see who the Iowa R Central Committee puts on the ballot. Probably vote for Palin if she gets on the ballot (I think they are going to decide in the July 23-27 time frame). My libertarian nature also would put Ron Paul or Gary Johnson as possibilities.

What I have seen: Pawlenty is getting me the most phone calls and mailings. He seems to have a really good organization, I would say the best in the state. I can't seem to find people that would go to the straw poll for him though. Nobody dislikes him really, but he doesn't seem to be anybody's first choice (my take, he should start sucking up to be somebody's veep choice)

Ron Paul has hit the airwaves. Pretty good ad I must say. His supporters are hardcore. I'm guessing he will have a pretty good showing at the caucus. I would say he has the 2nd best organization in the state.

There was a lot of Cain support that I saw, but that seems to have vanished. Has no ground game in Iowa, I'd say he is slipping.

Bachmann really seems to be making a large online presence with ads on local internet media outlets. She has a lot of interest, and her ground game is pretty good. If Palin is not on the ballot, I would say the Iowa Straw Poll is Bachman's to lose. However, I'm not convinced that will carry to the Caucus in February. My take, she picked up a lot of the disaffected people that liked Cain. She lost me and people who are not necessarily big social conservatives with signing that pledge by the Iowa Family Leader or whatever it is called. But Iowa has a lot of social conservative Republicans, so she will do fine here.

Romney has money supposedly, but he does not seem to be making a big effort here. I do not know a non-Mormon who is supporting Romney.

As for visits, Pawlenty, Bachmann, Paul are the ones that really seem to be getting out and about, and if you want to meet one of them, it wouldn't be hard.

Johnson, Gingrich, Santorum, Huntsman--I'm not hearing much of anything from them. Santorum would be the top of that group. He has events from time to time that you could stop by and see him.

My take of order of finish at the Straw Poll (if Palin or Perry aren't on the ballot) Bachman, Paul, Romney, Cain, Pawlenty, and the remainder combined probably less than Pawlenty

[Pappy Smear]

I'm gonna put numbers to my early Straw Poll picks

Bachmann 30%, Paul 20%, Romney 18%, Cain 9%, Pawlenty 8%, Field 15%.

[TexasFreeper2009]

um... you didn’t even mention the winner, which will be Perry.

[JRochelle]

I would drive to Iowa and vote for Pawlenty if I could. That guy has a great record, pro-life, a bit bland but so what?

I am not looking for the Republican version of Obama. I am looking for competence.

[campaignPete R-CT]

hey Pappy, excellent news reporting. better than Fox news.

further details: In past years, every major candidate is on the ballot, even the ones who aren’t participating. McCain 2000 and Pete Wilson 1996 were on the ballot. think they were not announced, but had exploratory committees. So no clear precedent for the Palin situation.

Romney is skipping. Won’t bring people .. will not show up. he will not get 10%. Maybe less than 5%.
Gingrich is skipping. Won’t bring people .. will not show up.
Huntsman is skipping. skipping caucuses too.

Pawlenty will spend money to get people there. he beats Cain.

[campaignPete R-CT]

I think you need an IOWA ID to cast a ballot. not sure if they have voter records indicating Republican registration.