Right now, I’d say that Paul is more likely of Bachmann and Cain. Depending on how long Bachmann is able to stick around.
As long is Bachmann is able to escape being seen as an object of ridicule, I see her doing well. I like her, if she was the nominee, I’d happily vote for her. She’s going to have trouble once Saturday Night Live gets back, which is September, October. Wiig is funny and has done Bachmann already. Who will they get to play Marcus?
I see Bachmann staying in maybe 3 weeks after SNL starts, if she’s not gone before then. First sketch would be Michelle and Marcus. Palin should be in by then. If not, interesting.
Bachmann will have a strong campaign organization in place with Ed Rollins and they’ve been doing all this ground work, and her numbers are looking good. Which is all good news for Sarah, because Palin #2 is testing messages and whatnot for Palin #1. A passable version of Palin is doing quite well. I like her, she’s saying the right things. I’d be happy to vote for her, and I might actually be super motivated because a humiliating defeat would be very bad. We want this to look like 80 and not 64. Remember what they did to Christine O’Donnell? Christine said a couple weird things. I can barely remember. Something about witches. And off they went. Because they had all those clips. Because Christine was a TV Big Shot. Christine was on TV all the time, national tv, all over the place when Michele was a professional foster parent. And they were ragging on Christine’s background. Bachmann probably just happened to be the closest looking to Palin, and was willing to try to be Palin #2.
I really think Christine should be up there. She should go for something. Yeah, try Christine out if Bachmann collapses due to excess mockery. There’s nothing new on Christine, and a lot of Christine’s clips are quite good. She can use that stuff to her advantage. It certainly would cause quite a stir. People know who she is. Moreso than Santorum, or Perry, or Huntsman, or Pawlenty, or Cain. And she did do well in the debates. She was doing a solid enough job against a Yale Law Grad. This is an interesting situation. (unless palin is in) Christine could easily get early support. She could hit Bachmanns numbers now as a direct replace. And she’s Catholic. Do it. She’s in the debate, she does a good job, she’s super pretty, she’s been studying the issues. Michele Bachmann is leading in quite a few polls. Clearly they aren’t comparing resumes, or bios, or looking at all at anything but what she is saying right now. This version of Palin will be crushed by SNL. Christine’s numbers were quite good in many key areas. Huge young black female turnout really didn’t help Christine, but Christine out performed McMahon in certain demos. Schiff coulda won.
I’m starting to really like this Christine idea. No bad votes to point to. They can do witch jokes again. She can read the tea party script well. She does well in debates. People gave her lots of money last year and will do so again.
I’m supporting Ron Paul. I’d give money to Christine as well. Palin should jump in when things get messy, and a Bachmann collapse would cause a “Draft Palin” movement I would assume, if she didn’t just jump in. That has got to be a pretty bad scenario for some people. Palin and Bachmann are likely the top 2 picks for a lot of people. I’d like to see Christine go right in there, and get slotted into the Bachmann campaign with Rollins. See what happens.
She raised over $2 Million in a week last year. All those people devastated about SNL crushing Bachmann, and Christine goes in there, ready for round 2.
Of course, Palin should be the one doing this. The conditions for Palin are good. Palin #2 doing well is good for Palin #1. Likely clear win, easy win. The polls are all over the place on Palin but some have her high and I tend to believe those.
She still would likely have to consider Ron Paul, who will be doing much better with the new TV hundred thousand dollar ad buy. Fantastic commercial, will be effective with tea party. He’s also going to be strong with independent males, and the young. Grassroots projects are targeting those markets. A lot of merchandising Ron Paul to those groups in somewhat atypical ways. Ron Paul is spending his money now, because he knows that it’s just going to build. The establishment candidates talk to the rich folks that they know, take money from the industries that they give special favors to, and then they’re done. They’re all maxed out. Not all candidates, Palin will get tons of money from regular folks, and I assume Bachmann does too, and so would Christine.
Christine had a lot of money left over. She has fans. And it would make the media insane if she jumped in after they knocked Bachmann out. Bachmann has gotten as far as she’s gotten without anybody really knowing her background. Christine can get that far. And it would be incredibly facinating to watch. It could be Bachmann to Christine to Palin, depending on how Christine goes. Paul / Christine, Palin / Paul. I’d like to see it that way, something like that. Even as the most Conservative, Ron Paul appeals to Independents and Democrats. Good for your ticket. He’ll be a strong force there’s nothing in his background that we don’t know. The grassroots is working on a ton of things, most good. Grassroots is IDing thousands of Ames Straw Poll people. Out of staters are being discouraged from attending. They want just Iowans. Other plans were being worked on to get people to the straw poll, but it wasn’t thought that they’d be needed. At least 3 different plans were discussed. Bachmann should still be strong, so I’m not sure that RP will win, but he should be strong.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUNIeOB0whI