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Sorry for the late reply I was up in the mountains for the better part of this week visiting the tombs of a few Saints.

Well its been fairly quiet really..

The christians dont really care as they are enjoying the most power that they have had denied to them in a very long time by the sunnis, and are starting to work on new laws, infact because the hariri government did nothing in all those years they have a backlog of about 1500 laws up for discussion. The christians are also trying to abandon the taef accord which cut off all christian power in government and transfered it to the sunni prime minister. As much as the western media call it a hezbollah government, they have 2/30 ministers, agriculture and a minister of state representing shiites(each sect has a minister of state), and they have some 10 out of 128 in parliament (not too sure but roughly that amount).

The Hezbollah leader spoke a week ago and he mentioned that no one will ever find those people in the indictments, be it now or in 300 years. I would guess theyre most likely somewhere in Iran where no one can get to them and they will be tried in absentia.

To me it does seem like a Syrian/Hezbollah operation. I mean from the quick withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon and the rallies hezbollah did to thank syria for “helping” lebanon. Then the subsequent “suicide” of the former head of syrian intelligence, Ghazi Kanaan, on the same day he gave an interview denying any involvement. The assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, the explosion of a truck filled with shiites which was explained as an “accident”. The assassination of the lebanese intelligence officer who discovered the initial evidence using the phone networks and found a mistake of one of the perpetrators because instead of dumping the phone used it to call his girlfriend. All these point to the tying up of loose ends.
What I do not see, however, is the motive that hezbollah would have had. I can see the Syrian motive, as Syria was in a dispute at the time with hariri over the extension of the mandate of then president emile lahoud, at the time and even till now hezbollah doesnt care about political power, even giving up a seat in the ministry to the sunni’s(which technically was unconstitutional) so that the government would be formed.
On the basis of motive, Syria and some would say israel are the top of the list. The arguments given on Israels motive, is to get syria out of lebanon as they would not be able to attack hezbollah while syria is in lebanon without creating a much larger conflict. The fact that lebanon has caught about 300 spies working for israel in the last few years, the majority in the telecoms sector, including some people in hezbollah which hezbollah left unnamed so as to not shame the families.

Thats as much of the whole story that I can say. My bet is hezbollah execution on behalf of syria, and I also think that after they are tried in absentia nothing will happen, the matter will die down eventually until the next major conflict. This is the UN afterall, and both sides in lebanon seem committed to not start infighting which could lead to civil war, that plus the fact that no one could match up to hezbollah, who even the israelis would admit are extremely seasoned fighters. When you think about it, their fighters have been at it constantly for 30 years now, which is alot of experience, continuous experience.

In the meantime the christians are surprisingly benefitting from this because theyre usually the only ones that get things done and are working on the whole backlog of issues that parliament has amassed.