“Sarah Palin needs to do something SOON...”
I’ve heard talk about her not declaring her candidacy till 7/27 or after. Something to do with ethics and it being 2 years after the date she stepped down as governor. If it’s going to happen, it will happen then.
So it's uncertain for 2 more weeks or longer. I'll be watching.
I'm going with 8/15 at the absolute earliest, and possibly not until Labor Day. For a few reasons:
1) She's still "on the clock" for Jury duty pretty much the entire month of July. She's not going to start anything until that's out of the way.
2) The Iowa straw poll is August 13. Given that it's essentially a test of organizing and paying for supporters to show up and vote for you, that's probably not something you're really going to want to try for less than 2 weeks after launching your campaign. So, avoid any potential negative perceptions of a poor showing as a declared candidate by not being a declared candidate at that point. (Same goes for Perry at this point, BTW.) As a potential bonus, an 8/15 entry essentially steals the thunder of whomever does win the straw poll.
3) The bus tour. Assuming Palin is going to hold to her previous statements about continuing the bus tour (the jury duty summons does give her an "out" here), then as long as it's a SarahPAC venture, she's not going to be a declared candidate for anything while it's still going on. Normally, I'd be pretty happy predicting 8/15 and leaving it at that, but the bus tour has me thinking that she might wait until closer to Labor Day.
4) Fundraising. An entry between mid-August and early September still gives her plenty of time for initial fundraising prior to her first FEC filing for the quarter ending on 9/30 while still being able to point out that it was for only half a quarter (or less).